Prediction of severe weather progressed slowly at the start of the nineteenth century. While earlier limited attempts were made to observe the weather, not until 1870 did the development of a weather forecast service by the U. S. Army Signal Corps begin. Weather observers were used to create charts for the forecaster who used the data for daily reports. Additionally, the data were used in some secondary research. In 1882, Sgt. John Finley established a project called "tornado studies". Finley's intent was to perform a serious study of tornadoes and associated weather conditions. As a result, the first tornado predictions were issued in March 1884. Early predictions relied heavily on the severe storm and tornado charts developed by Sgt. Finley. Much of Sgt. Finley's work would be unutilized because official policy prohibited use of the word "tornado" in forecasts. Although the ban was supposed to prevent undue panic within the public, the only thing it really prevented was severe storm research. Even with the establishment of the Weather Bureau in 1891, no significant advancements were made in forecasting techniques for nearly fifty years. On the evening of March 20, 1948, a tornado ripped through Tinker Air Force Base, destroying 32 military aircraft and causing considerable damage to many buildings on the base. Five days later, two members of the Air Weather Service, Major Ernest Fawbush and Captain Robert Miller, realized conditions were similar to the previous storm and issued a warning of a possible tornado. Their prediction received great attention and soon Fawbush and Miller were responsible for tornado forecasting for much of the central United States. However, even with the success of the Fawbush-Miller prediction, the Weather Bureau continued to withhold tornado predictions. In May 1952, under pressure from citizens and the media, the Weather Bureau released storm forecasts from its Washington D.C. headquarters. Soon it became clear that the prediction center should be moved closer to the Central Plains where most severe storms occur. In 1954, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center was established in Kansas City, Missouri. Reference: Historical Essays on Meteorology; Edited by Roger Fleming. Chapter 10, Severe Convective Storms: A Brief History of Science and Practice; Kenneth C. Crawford and Edwin Kessler, Pgs. 307-319 |
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